U.S. Trade Skills Crisis: The Top 10 States Struggling to Match Demand

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Despite booming demand, several U.S. states are significantly falling behind in training the next generation of skilled tradespeople. Below is an analysis using the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). It’s the primary source of data on U.S. colleges, universities, and technical/vocational schools, maintained by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), part of the U.S. Department of Education completions data alongside Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projections.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics, a part of the U.S. Department of Labor, is the federal government’s primary agency for measuring labor market activity, working conditions, and price changes in the economy. By enjoining these two data sources, the analysis reveals where shortages are most acute.

Top 10 States with the Deepest Trade Shortages

(Based on highest average Shortage Index across Electricians, HVAC, and Plumbers)

StateElectriciansHVACPlumbersAvg. Index
1. Nevada5.4×6.1×4.7×5.4×
2. Arizona4.9×5.2×4.3×4.8×
3. Texas4.2×3.8×3.9×3.9×
4. Florida4.0×4.5×3.7×4.1×
5. North Carolina3.6×3.9×3.2×3.6×
6. Georgia3.5×3.4×3.1×3.3×
7. Washington3.2×3.6×2.9×3.2×
8. Pennsylvania3.1×2.9×3.0×3.0×
9. Ohio2.9×2.7×2.8×2.8×
10. Colorado2.8×3.0×2.6×2.8×

Note: These figures are rounded for clarity. Exact data available in the spreadsheets and IPEDS/BLS datasets cited below.

Regional Impact

  1. Western states, such as Nevada and Arizona, are lagging behind in training sufficient numbers of tradespeople.
    High-growth construction markets are exacerbating shortages. Nevada’s rooftop solar boom and Arizona’s population influx—paired with limited trade school output—have pushed their indices above 5×.
  2. Major economies aren’t immune.
    Texas, Florida, and North Carolina exhibit indices between 3–4×, indicating a chronic mismatch between what employers need and what trainers produce.
  3. Supply is lagging across the board.
    Even states that train more, such as Pennsylvania or Ohio, still show shortages around three times, highlighting that even modest completion rates aren’t enough to keep pace with retirements and growth.
  4. Economic consequences are real.
    Without enough workers, project delays, rising labor costs, and increased safety risks become more prevalent. McKinsey notes that skilled trade shortages hinder the resilience of clean-energy infrastructure and manufacturing. (McKinsey)
  5. Trade jobs offer compelling returns.
    Electricians earn median pay of $62,350/year (BLS Electricians); HVAC techs around $59,810 (BLS HVAC); plumbers $62,970 (BLS Plumbers). These are solid-paying careers. However, completion pipelines aren’t keeping up.

Analysis Underscores the Urgency in Funding Trade Education

  • Trade school expansion is urgent.
    States with high demand, such as Nevada and Arizona, must scale their capacity through public programs, apprenticeships, and incentives.
  • National dialogue is overdue.
    The shortage underscores the cultural undervaluation of vocational training. We need a narrative shift that elevates trades as viable alternatives to a four-year college education.
  • Funding must follow the need.
    Scholarships, industry partnerships, and infrastructure investments should include training pipelines as part of economic planning.

Key Data Sources

  • IPEDS Completions (2022–23) – Public data from NCES capturing the number of postsecondary completions by CIP codes for Electricians (46.0302), HVAC (47.0201), and Plumbing (46.0503), including certificates and associate-level awards. Downloaded via the IPEDS Data Center.
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Occupational Outlook – Long-term projections of job openings and national employment figures:
    • Electricians (SOC 47-2111): ~80,200 openings annually (BLS Electricians)
    • HVAC Technicians (SOC 49-9021): ~42,500 openings annually (BLS HVAC)
    • Plumbers, Pipe fitters, Steamfitters (SOC 47-2152): ~43,300 openings annually (BLS Plumbers)

Methodology

This analysis merges supply-side completions data with demand-side job openings:

  1. Completions data – Pulled from IPEDS Completions Survey, 2022–23, which reports the number of students completing postsecondary programs by Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) code:
    • 46.0302 Electrician
    • 47.0201 Heating, Air Conditioning, Ventilation & Refrigeration Maintenance Technology (HVAC/R)
    • 46.0503 Plumbing Technology
  2. Demand data – Annual projected job openings by Standard Occupational Classification (SOC), taken from the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook:
  1. SOC 47-2111 Electricians (BLS Electricians)
  2. SOC 49-9021 HVAC Technicians (BLS HVAC)
  3. SOC 47-2152 Plumbers/Pipefitters/Steamfitters (BLS Plumbers)
  4. Calculation – For each state and trade, we compute a Shortage Index:

Shortage Index = (Annual Job Openings) ÷ (2022–23 Sub-Baccalaureate Completions)

Values above 1.0 indicate a shortage (demand outpaces completions). The higher the index, the more acute the shortage.

Learn More & Download the Data

Final Thoughts

States from coast to coast are struggling to train enough tradespeople to meet demand. Without significant adjustments to trade education and changes in our economic policy, shortages will strain critical infrastructure and slow economic growth.

What these shortage numbers really show is that we’re at a crossroads. The older generation of electricians, HVAC technicians, and plumbers is retiring faster than schools can train replacements. I’ve spoken to contractors who are booked months in advance, and homeowners who struggle to find help quickly for essential repairs. This isn’t a “future problem.” It is a reality that’s already here.

The encouraging part? Trade careers are promising careers. They pay well, they can’t be outsourced, and they offer a sense of purpose. But the pipeline has to grow. That means better outreach to young people, stronger apprenticeship programs, and a cultural shift that values trades as much as traditional college paths. The shortage data is a warning sign, but it also reveals opportunities and provides a reminder that the people who keep America running have secure jobs that matter.